In their August 14th story entitled Online Video Ad Spending Growth: Get Ready for a Stream of Dollars,Emarketer.com reports their 2008 web based video ad revenue estimates have been more than halved. One is left to wonder if Emarketer’s present estimates are overly optimistic.

The Difference Between Click-Throughs (CPC) and Impressions (CPM)

One reason that revenues are falling short of estimates may have to do with how ad revenues are determined. Online video advertising generally includes in-stream (pre-roll and overlays), in-banner, and in-text ads (delivered when users mouse-over relevant words). If, due to a lack of data, analysts failed to accurately distinguish video content from other forms of content such as text, images, or audio, then ad click-through estimates were likely inflated.

Click-through rates associated with text, image, an audio content exceed click-through rates associated with video content. The visually dynamic nature of video more fully and more continuously attracts a viewer’s attention. When situated in a room with an operating television, regardless of the content, a person will continue to regularly look back top the screen.

Absent the introduction of a new advertising/presentation model, it’s likely that web video revenues will continue to primarily depend upon impressions rather than click-throughs. Given that impression based ad revenues are generally far lower than click-through ad revenues (assuming even small click-through rates). Additionally, it’s likely that impression based revenues will decline as advertisers realize that the value of advertising impressions is lower than originally thought as well.

If analysts continue to assume that people will click on ads in conjunction with video content, or that revenue/impressions will remain stable, then their estimates will continue to remain high. The euphoria surrounding web video could quickly sour, depressing investment until a more profitable advertising or presentation model is introduced. Given that I’m presently developing a new presentation/advertising model, I remain optimistic. Biased, and optimistic.

Summum Bonum

[Time Magazine->http://www.time.com/time/] will hit the newsstands Monday with the [Person of the Year issue->http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1569514,00.html]. And the Person of the Year is….YOU! Congratulations!!

Now before you get a swelled head, Time has also decided that I’m the Person of the year as well. In fact, Time’s Person of the Year 2006 is anyone using or creating content on the World Wide Web. Time salutes each of us “…for seizing the reins of the global media, for founding and framing the new digital democracy…,” and for basically pointing out new ways in which we all can benefit from the Web.

Time also makes certain to point out that “…Web 2.0 harnesses the stupidity of crowds as well as its wisdom. Some of the comments on YouTube make you weep for the future of humanity just for the spelling alone…But that’s what makes all this interesting. Web 2.0 is a massive social experiment, and like any experiment worth trying, it could fail.”

You are Time’s Person of the Year because You are using or creating content for Web2.0.

Web2.0 + You = [Web2.U->http://www.plexav.com/archives/2006/web20-web2u/]!

By naming You Person of the Year, Time Magazine is attempting to point You towards the ideal that is Web2.U. I’ve been writing about [Web2.U->http://www.plexav.com/archives/2006/web20-web2u/] for about a year now and invite you to read and comment.

If you want to see what Web2.U is all about, then Digg or Reddit this post. You’ll not only be indicating an interest in Web2.U, you’ll be demonstrating that Web2.U is all about You! Congratulations on being named Person of the Year!

Summum Bonum

Swivel Inc., may be one of a handful of companies serving [Web2.U->] applications. Even if you haven’t read earlier posts describing the idea of Web2.U, if you’re like most people who hear the term, you’ve got some idea even if you can’t articulate it. Funny thing is, the term Web2.0 has been hyped for a year and a half and that term still makes little if any sense. So, welcome to Web2.U, and now let’s discover how [Swivel, Inc. -> http://www.swivel.com] is a Web2.U company.

The Concept - Swivel is a site for sharing information, along the lines of [Youtube->http://www.youtube.com], [MySpace->http://www.myspace.com], [Flickr->http://www.flikr.com] and so many others. What distinguishes Swivel is the type of information you’re able to share. Swivel is all about sharing data sets! Now, you’d feel more excited about this if the word ‘data’ defined something more tangible. So, let’s take the concept and view it’s application in the real world. See, you’re more interested already!

The Application - Swivel provides hosting, visualization, and data analysis services for registered users. The site’s in beta and it’s free to post and view data. Users upload data sets and generate an assortment of visualizations all of which are made publicly available. Moreover, users can compare multiple data sets and create corresponding visualizations.
Here, you can see a graph containing annual sales of milk vs bottled water.

In essence, people can play with the data, exploring the information landscape in search of undiscovered relationships that hold some value. It’s an informational treasure hunt. Additionally, Swivel plans on offering for-fee private data accounts under which Users may use all public data while restricting access to their own data.